What do you think of the best sports betting
Joachim Marnitz is a betting professional and betting strategy expert. In an interview, he explains why professional football betting has little to do with "clue" and how to make more than 1 million in sales.
Joachim, you earn your money with sports betting. How does it work?
I studied sociology for a diploma. The focus was on empirical social research and thus on statistics. And that's exactly what forms the basis for professional sports betting for me. You can't compare it with the beer bet on the weekend.
What do you do differently than the general public?
Before I make a bet, I analyze numerous data sets, the odds movements for both teams in the past and the special framework conditions of the game. For example, whether certain players are suspended or injured.
How do you become a professional bettor?
I would say: you slip in there. At some point you develop your own methods and refine them. You only notice how difficult that is in the difficult phases when things are not going as well. In my opinion, the decisive factor is the ambition to see the matter as a mathematical challenge. It's like successful poker players. Luck and bad luck only play an important role in the meantime. Ability is decisive in the long run.
Can you give us an idea of the sales of a professional bettor?
The sales of professional bettors are always in the millions, which sounds like a lot, but is put into perspective when you consider that professional sports bettors can only book a small percentage of their sales as profit. If a successful sports bettor can post five percent of his sales as profit, that's a lot. So in order to be able to earn 50,000 euros a year, one would have to make a million turnover.
What does the average daily work of a professional weather look like?
That will differ from case to case. I invest a relatively large amount of time in developing my models, which I work on all year round. Otherwise, I deal with collecting data as efficiently as possible and analyzing my daily bets and, if necessary, placing them.
How long is a single bet? And how do you scan the odds?
I scan odds movements automatically with a program that records the odds at various bookmakers for me. For individual bets, I use my own analyzes and look at the current betting odds. Expected price developments also play an important role: If I am of the opinion that a rate will continue to rise until kick-off, I will wait a long time before placing the bet. In other cases, I have to strike as quickly as possible. The actual analysis of an individual bet does not take that long. However, a lot of work has gone into developing the underlying model.
What are your betting decisions based on?
Simply put: on a number of variables that I consider particularly relevant and the betting odds. The art of betting is to put the two in a meaningful relationship. In other words, you have to be able to convert your variables into probabilities and be closer to the truth with this assessment than the market is.
Which data are important for betting?
Nobody will reveal all of their secrets, but in football the frequency and quality of scoring chances and their execution are particularly important. An example of an almost meaningless statistic in football is possession of the ball. Interestingly, such meaningless statistics can also be of value when betting: namely when they are overrated by the public, as this drives prices in a certain direction.
Where do professionals bet?
Professionals bet with bookmakers who do not block or limit individual players. These are depressingly few, in football they are above all SBO, IBC, Pinnacle and Singbet. There are also betting exchanges such as Matchbook or Betdaq, and Foobet in Asia. For professionals, betting agents such as Samvo Betbroker are also essential in order to be able to place really high sums in one fell swoop.
How do you know that you are having good weather?
There is an amazingly simple rule of thumb for this: If you regularly and systematically manage to get better odds when betting than are available for the bet in question shortly before kick-off, then you are most likely a good bettor. In English this is called the “closing line”. With this method you can in principle already estimate after 200 bets, many bookmakers also use exactly this method to identify systematic winners. Otherwise, of course, on the money in the account. However, due to the random fluctuations, there can be surprisingly long dry spells even if you bet very well. Accordingly, you need 1000 bets easily before a clearer picture is formed in this way. Betting means always looking for value with a lot of discipline, in this sense it is like trading stocks.
What does sports betting have to do with stocks?
While there are naturally differences, there are also important similarities: The key to successful stock trading is buying undervalued stocks and selling them when they are overvalued. This value concept is also used in sports betting: For me, whether a bet on Bayern Munich is worth it as the winner of the next game depends on whether the betting odds are priced too high. If so, I'll make that bet.
What are typical beginner mistakes?
Beginners bet on winners, professionals bet on (too high) prices. Beginners tend to make the mistake of viewing bets as a yes / no affair rather than seeing betting odds for what they are: probabilities. Betting is about estimating these probabilities more accurately than the market, but very few are aware of this. Another typical beginner's mistake: To bet too large a proportion of the betting capital per bet. Beginners usually vastly underestimate the possible random fluctuations. Personally, I wouldn't recommend anyone wagering more than two percent per bet. For this reason, taking part in the bettingexpert tip contest is ideal: you don't risk money, but you can still win some, and most importantly, you can test your skills in real-life conditions. Because you always learn most in practice.
What advice do you have for novice bettors?
Bring a lot of patience and first test each idea on paper or only with very small stakes. If you don't know a mathematical advantage on your side, you'd better not bet. The best recommendation is: immerse yourself in betting theory, because this is the key to successful sports betting. Knowing about the sport in question is far less important than you think.
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