Why is the European Union not kicking Greece out?
Are Greece now being thrown out of the EU?
The Eurogroup is playing a dangerous game for Europe and the euro, the question is whether the bank run will not only happen in Greece
It is an absurd theater what is given in the apparently last act with an uncertain outcome on the European stage. The fact that Syriza in Greece now wants to let the population decide in a referendum on the "reform requirements" of the Troika obviously leads in an allegedly democratic Europe to violate their own treaties and want to throw Greece out of the euro and / or the EU.
You cannot leave the monetary union at all
Even the Austrian government, which recently showed solidarity with the Greeks, now considers the so-called "Grexit" to be almost inevitable. Austria's Finance Minister Hans Jörg Schelling also makes the whole debacle clear that the EU is now facing. After the negotiations had apparently now definitely failed and the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had already been kicked out of the Eurogroup, he said that Greece would also have to apply for an exit from the EU, which the other countries would have to agree to. But here a very simple question arises, which obviously nobody asks. Why should Greece do this?
In response to inquiries from journalists about leaving the euro zone, the dilemma became even clearer. What is called "Grexit" is also impossible in Schelling's view:
Because you cannot leave the monetary union at all.
Only after leaving the EU, "Greece could probably also leave the euro zone," he added. Note the word "probably". The EU Commission had definitely declared to the German finance minister and his permanent Grexit demands:
Membership in the euro is irrevocable.
So it will be interesting to see what the considerations in Brussels, Berlin and Paris look like, which should lead out of this impasse. How to force or lure the Greeks to apply to leave the EU. How expensive will that be, besides the Greek loans, which will fail in view of the likely bankruptcy?
For in vain, in view of this unworthy treatment, Greece will not apply to leave the euro or the EU. And a solution would also have to be sought for the fact that a Euro Grexit will probably not even be possible when leaving the EU. All of this makes it clear into what dangerous impasse our politicians have maneuvered us in their attempts to bring Greece to its knees.
Federal Foreign Minister Steinmeier is stunned
One can safely forget that this topic can be buried quickly. It sounds very strange when a German Social Democrat like Federal Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is now "stunned". Stunned that a government takes the word democracy seriously and wants the sovereign to decide on this important decision on July 5th? So it's about a week and that's a problem?
That says a lot about our social democrats' understanding of democracy. It is even more dramatic when he accuses Syriza and the Greek government of all people of taking their own people "hostage" in order to "wrest further concessions from Europe".
But that is exactly what a government does not do if it asks the people about the important decisions that they will have to pay for afterwards. But Steinmeier is appalled that "an elected Greek government is recommending its people to reject the European proposal". But isn't it the job of a government to warn against an agreement with measures that have not had a positive effect for years and are therefore also rejected by the government?
And isn't it rather the Eurogroup taking the Greek government and the people hostage? This is because conditions are to be imposed on the country again, with practically no real involvement by the government and without any decision by the population, which have already shown that they are completely unsuitable for getting the country back on its feet. Heiner Flassbeck has again worked out that we are dealing with a "catastrophic end to the Greek-European tragedy".
Because it is precisely these measures that have led to this disaster, in which ultimately not only Greece is stuck. Numerous experts and Nobel laureates in economics had warned of such a "crazy" policy and the foreseeable "catastrophic consequences" years ago. The International Monetary Fund had even expressed self-criticism.
But if you look at the course of the negotiations with Greece over the last few weeks, it was only crocodile tears anyway. No conclusions were drawn from this self-criticism. Once again, the IMF is the hardliner and there is no trace of the supposedly better capitalism that it is calling for.
Shock effect on the capital markets
And in view of the allegedly successful bailouts, it will be interesting to see what the upheavals and shock waves on the capital markets associated with being kicked out will have for these countries. The risk premiums for crisis countries have risen significantly again in some cases in recent weeks. It is clear that after their "rescue" they are all - without distinction - worse off than before.
The national debt only exploded through the bank bailouts and it is now also known that the total debt of the "model student" Ireland is even significantly higher than that of Greece. And the situation in Portugal and Cyprus is not relaxed either, not to mention the big euro countries Spain and Italy.
The alleged successful bailouts so far have mainly been simulated by the European Central Bank (ECB), which has beaten the interest rates of the crisis countries down. Export growth also depends to a large extent on the fact that the ECB has entered the currency war dangerously with its monetary policy and massively weakened the euro in order to make exports significantly cheaper. There is no self-sustaining growth to be seen and it will be interesting to see what effects it will have if Greece is actually thrown out of the euro and / or the EU.
In the first case, only the common currency would be badly hit again. This is then the signal to speculators to cash in. Because when the idea reappears that the monetary union can break up, speculators will wonder who the next candidate is. There will be massive bets again.
In view of the debate about a possible cash ban, no one should be surprised if the bank run does not occur in Greece alone, but instead, in view of the uncertain situation, savers across Europe are massively withdrawing their deposits in order to exchange them for precious metals and reasonably stable currencies.
Because, contrary to what Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble always explains, it is anything but agreed whether the euro zone can really cope with the upheavals of the Grexit. Experts have repeatedly warned of the devastating consequences. Like the bankruptcy of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, Grexit would only be "squared", it was predicted. In Europe, among other things, we are still nibbling at the consequences of this bankruptcy seven years later.
An additional expulsion from the EU is a clear signal of how weak the political union really is. Obviously you can't be a member of the EU if you don't also adopt the euro. This means that the political union is also getting into difficult waters. This is the starting point for Great Britain, where many want to say goodbye to this project anyway.
The EU is thus becoming a breaking point or construction site union, whose appeal to admission candidates has already declined, as Iceland has shown, not least. It seems we are facing a hot summer.Read comments (277 posts) https://heise.de/-2730678Report errorDrucken
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